Rain-fed agriculture

Variability in the productivity of rain-fed agricultural production will increase substantially with climate change, with important implications for food security. Malnutrition, particularly in children, is a critical concern in Kenya, with high rates of wasting and undernourishment, particularly in rural areas. Effects of climate change will likely increase the frequency and severity of malnutrition, particularly in rural areas, because the vast majority of rural Kenyans obtain their food from rain-fed agriculture. In addition, already-documented increases in prices of staple foods (also grown without irrigation), will likely lead to increased urban malnourishment as well.

A water catchment system in Kenya; from
Kenya Water for Health Organization. 

Small- scale agriculture is an important part of Kenya's economy, as well as an important source of sustenance for the rural poor. Agriculture comprises 26% of Kenya's GDP and 75% of the country's employment, primarily on small-scale farms. About 75% of total agricultural output is produced on 0.2-0.3 hectare farms. Such farms produce both marketable produce, as well as comprise the most important source of staple food production for the rural poor. Projections suggest that such small-scale farms will remain the most important source of food for most poor rural Kenyans, and thus should remain a critical component of any development plan.

These farms are primarily rain-fed, which increases Kenya's vulnerability to increased precipitation variability under climate change. Irrigated agriculture comprises only 1.7% of total agricultural land under production. This reliance on rain-fed, rather than irrigated, agriculture means Kenya is highly vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. Irrigated agriculture is, at least in the short-term, less volatile with respect to changing precipitation patterns than is rain-fed agriculture. Recognizing this risk, a recent report recommends an increase in irrigated agriculture from140,000 hectares to 1 million hectares to increase economic and food security in this region. The Kenyan government has invested a substantial amount of money into this operation, recently developing an initiative to bring 1 million hectares under irrigation over 5 years. Greenhouse farming, another form of irrigated agriculture, has also gained traction in recent years.

Women working in a Kenyan greenhouse; from Thomson Reuters. 

In spite of these steps towards irrigation, the potential for irrigated agriculture is limited, both logisticadlly and politically. Logistically, this increase in irrigation is close to the limit of the water resources available to Kenya. While the country has an estimated irrigation potential of ~1.3 million hectares, only about 30% of this water production is possible with available water resources; the remainder will require water harvesting and storage. Water harvesting in Kenya is currently fairly uncommon, but is becoming more widespread in rural communitites through grassroots rural initiatives. In spite of these successes, governmental support of water harvesting is critical to the success of this technique for expanding irrigated agriculture. While Kenyan policies have historically not been supportive of water harvesting for agriculture, as-yet-unimplemented new policies are paving the way for large-scale water harvesting.

Projections of rainfed maize yield with climate change; from Odera et al. 2013.

While Kenya's expansion into irrigated agriculture is critical for mitigating increased variability under climate change, there are some positive outcomes of changes in precipitation patterns with climate change. All of the leading climate models suggest that rainfall patterns over some arid- and semi-arid regions in northern Kenya will become more suitable for growing maize, Kenya's staple crop. Increases in productivity in these regions could help mitigate some of the productivity lost in other regions, but these effects are complicated by historical land-use patterns. Efforts to encourage maize cultivation in these areas have not yet begun, but must consider land tenure and migration issues.

The reliance on rainfed agriculture makes Kenya highly vulnerable to the impacts of increased variability with climate change; increased variability in rainfed agricultural production under climate change may lead to increases in malnutrition issues in both rural and urban areas.